MNQ day review

Early morning update (MNQ.Z26), 07:25 ET bar: 29,577.00. Phase: pre-market.

In plain English: Overnight the market moved up about 320 points from yesterday's 29,257 close, a middling gap. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,613) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 13 to 26 points ($26 to $53), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.

Levels: ONH 29,613.00 (+36) | PDH 29,552.50 (-24) | ON mid 29,430.25 (-147) | Prior close 29,256.75 (-320) | ONL 29,247.50 (-330) | PDL 29,052.75 (-524)
5m ATR 18 | daily ATR 397 | 9/21 EMA 29,577/29,572
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,430.25): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap +320 pts (0.81 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 13 pts ($26/micro), 1.5x cap = 26 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/

Pre-open update (MNQ.Z26), 08:25 ET bar: 29,723.75. Phase: pre-market.

In plain English: Overnight the market moved up about 467 points from yesterday's 29,257 close, a middling gap. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,726) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 17 to 34 points ($34 to $69), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.

Levels: ONH 29,726.25 (+2) | PDH 29,552.50 (-171) | ON mid 29,486.88 (-237) | Prior close 29,256.75 (-467) | ONL 29,247.50 (-476) | PDL 29,052.75 (-671)
5m ATR 23 | daily ATR 397 | 9/21 EMA 29,660/29,622
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,486.88): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap +467 pts (1.18 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Price is 102 pts from the 21 EMA (>2 ATR): extended, do not chase; wait for the pullback.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 17 pts ($34/micro), 1.5x cap = 34 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/

Window open, first 15 minutes done (MNQ.Z26), 09:40 ET bar: 29,641.75. Phase: open, watch only (9:30-9:45).

In plain English: Overnight the market moved up about 461 points from yesterday's 29,257 close, a middling gap. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,753) gets tested before the other end. Price is below today's average price (29,649), so the sellers have the upper hand so far. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 23 to 46 points ($46 to $92), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.

Levels: ONH 29,753.25 (+112) | VWAP 29,649.47 (+8) | PDH 29,552.50 (-89) | ON mid 29,500.38 (-141) | Prior close 29,256.75 (-385) | ONL 29,247.50 (-394) | PDL 29,052.75 (-589)
5m ATR 31 | daily ATR 397 | 9/21 EMA 29,678/29,678
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,500.38): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap +461 pts (1.16 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- ONH 29,753.25 (+112 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~15 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- ONL 29,247.50 (-394 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~15 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade (already >1 daily ATR from the open: deep extremes rarely fade, skip).
- PDL 29,052.75 (-589 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~15 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade (already >1 daily ATR from the open: deep extremes rarely fade, skip).
- Broken today: PDH 29,552.50. A retest that holds is Setup B territory; do not fade these.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/