MNQ Today

It is lunch: bars shrink to half their morning size and fake breakouts pile up, so we wait. At 12:00 the day's high and low become the afternoon's levels.

Lunch: no entries. Afternoon opens at 12:00 with the day's high and low. Passing is normal.

In play

Levels in play
Level	Price	From price	Status
IBL in play initial balance low	28,614.75	+10	broken (closed through)

All levels

Level	Price	From price	Status
PDH prior-day RTH high	29,676.75	+1,072	fresh
Prior close gap-fill magnet	29,571.00	+967	reference
PDL prior-day RTH low	29,407.50	+803	broken (closed through)
ONH overnight high (17:00-8:30)	29,180.75	+576	fresh
ON mid overnight midpoint; side of open predicts first break ~76%	28,967.50	+363	reference
IBH initial balance high (8:30-9:30)	28,860.25	+256	fresh
OR15H opening range high (8:30-8:45)	28,808.75	+204	broken (closed through)
ONL overnight low	28,754.25	+150	broken (closed through)
VWAP session VWAP, fair value	28,733.79	+130	reference
OR15L opening range low	28,668.25	+64	broken (closed through)

Regular session, 5-minute

In-play levels and VWAP. Red = resistance, green = support, teal = VWAP. Amber dashed = 8:30 open.

Today's plans

No confirmed setups yet.

Last alert

No heads-up or confirmed setup yet.

The read

Mode

chop first-hour body 0.51, VWAP crosses 4

Nearest

IBL 28,614.75 +10

Stop

38–76 pts ($76–$151/micro)

News

none

Watch

Chop mode after 9:30: no Setup B; at most one Setup A at an outer level, or take the morning off.
why it matters
The first hour went nowhere and price kept crossing its own average. On days like this, breakouts fail and patience pays; taking no trade is a good outcome, not a wasted morning.
ONH 29,180.75 (+576 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~25 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
why it matters
Nobody has tested this price yet today. First touches are where the fake-outs live, because the stops sitting just beyond it are exactly what a quick poke is designed to collect. That snap-back is the trade.
Price is below the ON mid (28,967.50): ONL usually breaks first (~76%); ONH is reached first only ~23%.
why it matters
Which side of the overnight middle we opened on is today's cheapest clue. Open below it and the market usually goes looking for the overnight low first. It sets your lean, it is not a trade by itself.

Your trades today

no trades

No round trips yet today.

All alerts

10:55READ

11:00 midday read (MNQ.Z26): price 28,669.00, morning mode chop. Still alive. The last 30 min ranged 90 pts; outer levels in reach: none close yet. Only PDH/PDL/ONH/ONL fades count over lunch, and they arrive graded B with +2 risk for the thin tape.

10:25DONE

10:30, morning window over (MNQ.Z26). Lunch until 12:00: only PDH/PDL/ONH/ONL fades qualify and they arrive graded B with the thin tape priced in. A 11:00 read will say whether lunch is dead. Afternoon opens 12:00 with the day's high/low as its levels.
This morning: 0 heads-up, 0 graded calls sent, 0 watch-only (C) on the page.
Your trades today: no trades.
Auto-flatten: no position to flatten

9:25READ

9:30 read (MNQ.Z26): first-hour body 0.51 (down) -> mode chop.
IB 28,614.75-28,860.25 (246 pts = 0.42 daily ATR; narrow, extension likely).
Price 28,671.75 below VWAP 28,744.14; 21 over 9; VWAP crosses in hour one: 4.
Chop: no Setup B; at most one Setup A at an outer level, or take the morning off.

8:40UPDATE

Window open, first 15 minutes done (MNQ.Z26), 8:40 CT bar: 28,747.25. Phase: open, watch only (8:30-8:45).

In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 773 points from yesterday's 29,571 close, a big gap. Gaps that size usually do not fill, so do not expect a trip back to yesterday's close. We are below the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight low (28,754) gets tested before the other end. Price is below today's average price (28,748), so the sellers have the upper hand so far. Nothing to do yet. The job before 8:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 33 to 67 points ($67 to $134), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.

Levels: PDH 29,676.75 (+930) | Prior close 29,571.00 (+824) | PDL 29,407.50 (+660) | ONH 29,180.75 (+434) | ON mid 28,967.50 (+220) | ONL 28,754.25 (+7) | VWAP 28,747.94 (+1)
5m ATR 45 | daily ATR 579 | 9/21 EMA 28,772/28,788
Watch:
- Price is below the ON mid (28,967.50): ONL usually breaks first (~76%); ONH is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap -773 pts is large (1.33 daily ATR): displacement day, fills only ~8%. Do not fade toward 29,571.00; lean with the gap.
- ONH 29,180.75 (+434 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~22 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- PDH 29,676.75 (+930 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~22 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade (already >1 daily ATR from the open: deep extremes rarely fade, skip).
- Broken today: PDL 29,407.50, ONL 28,754.25. A retest that holds is Setup B territory; do not fade these.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 33 pts ($67/micro), 1.5x cap = 67 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/

8:10BRIEF

MNQ morning map, Fri Oct 30 (MNQ.Z26)
PDH 29,676.75 | PDL 29,407.50 | prior close 29,571
ONH 29,180.75 | ONL 28,754.25 | ON mid 28,967.50
Pre-open 28,780.75: below ON mid -> ONL usually breaks first (~76%).
Gap -790 pts = 1.36 daily ATR (large gap, fills only ~8%; do not fade toward the prior close).
Daily ATR 579 | 5-min ATR 29
News: nothing high-impact on the calendar.
Rules: nothing before 8:45, max 3 alerts, flat by 10:30.

7:25UPDATE

Pre-open update (MNQ.Z26), 7:25 CT bar: 28,795.50. Phase: pre-market.

In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 776 points from yesterday's 29,571 close, a big gap. Gaps that size usually do not fill, so do not expect a trip back to yesterday's close. We are below the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight low (28,762) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 8:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 21 to 42 points ($42 to $84), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.

Levels: PDH 29,676.75 (+881) | Prior close 29,571.00 (+776) | PDL 29,407.50 (+612) | ONH 29,180.75 (+385) | ON mid 28,971.62 (+176) | ONL 28,762.50 (-33)
5m ATR 28 | daily ATR 579 | 9/21 EMA 28,799/28,818
Watch:
- Price is below the ON mid (28,971.62): ONL usually breaks first (~76%); ONH is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap -776 pts is large (1.34 daily ATR): displacement day, fills only ~8%. Do not fade toward 29,571.00; lean with the gap.
- 8:30-8:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 21 pts ($42/micro), 1.5x cap = 42 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/

6:25UPDATE

Early morning update (MNQ.Z26), 6:25 CT bar: 28,831.25. Phase: pre-market.

In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 740 points from yesterday's 29,571 close, a big gap. Gaps that size usually do not fill, so do not expect a trip back to yesterday's close. We are below the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight low (28,818) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 8:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 19 to 39 points ($39 to $78), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.

Levels: PDH 29,676.75 (+846) | Prior close 29,571.00 (+740) | PDL 29,407.50 (+576) | ONH 29,180.75 (+350) | ON mid 28,999.62 (+168) | ONL 28,818.50 (-13)
5m ATR 26 | daily ATR 579 | 9/21 EMA 28,843/28,862
Watch:
- Price is below the ON mid (28,999.62): ONL usually breaks first (~76%); ONH is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap -740 pts is large (1.28 daily ATR): displacement day, fills only ~8%. Do not fade toward 29,571.00; lean with the gap.
- 8:30-8:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 19 pts ($39/micro), 1.5x cap = 39 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/

Standing rules

Setup A — fade a shallow poke of a fresh level that closes back inside. Confirm on the next bar.

Setup B — join the morning's direction on the first pullback to VWAP / 21 EMA that holds.

Lunch: no entries until 12:00.
Morning book is done. Flat for the midday; afternoon is a new session.

What the terms mean

MNQ

The micro Nasdaq futures contract. Every 1 point the index moves is $2 in your account, so a 50-point stop is $100 of risk on one contract.

PDH / PDL

Yesterday's high and low during regular hours. Everyone sees them, so orders and stops pile up just beyond them. That is why price reacts there.

ONH / ONL

The high and low of the overnight session (6pm to 8:30am). The night session is thin, so those extremes are often tested and taken out once the real volume shows up.

ON mid

The middle of the overnight range. Which side of it the day opens on is a decent hint about which end of the range gets attacked first.

OR15

Opening range: the high and low of the first 15 minutes. It frames the morning; breaking out of it is what most opening trades key off.

IB (initial balance)

The high and low of the first hour. A narrow first hour usually means the day expands out of it; a very wide one usually means the day is already done moving.

VWAP

The average price of the day weighted by volume. Big funds are graded against it, so their buying tends to appear below it and selling above it. Treat it as today's fair value.

ATR

Average true range: how far price typically travels in one 5-minute bar right now. It is the noise level, and your stop has to sit outside it.

One R is the amount you risk on a trade. A 1.5R target means you stand to make one and a half times what you are risking.

Poke / sweep

Price pushes a little past a well-known line, triggers the stops resting there, then comes straight back. It looks like a breakout for about a minute.

Body / wick

The body is where the candle opened and closed, the wick is how far it stretched. Bodies show conviction, wicks show rejection.

Setup A (failed break)

The fade. A level gets poked, the candle closes back inside, and you trade the snap-back away from it. You are betting the breakout was a stop grab.

Setup B (first pullback)

The follow. Direction is already established, price pulls back to VWAP or the 21 EMA, holds, and you join it. You are betting the trend is not finished.

Fade

Trading against the immediate move, expecting it to reverse. Only ever done at a level, after the candle closes back inside.

Bracket

Entry, stop and target sent as one order. Once it is in, the trade manages itself and you can walk away.

HOD / LOD

The day's high and low so far. From 12:00 they are the afternoon's levels: the stops above and below them are what afternoon breakouts go hunting for.

Lunch lull

Roughly 10:30 to 12:00. Volume dries up, ranges shrink by half, and breakouts fail more than at any other time. We do nothing.

Setup C (afternoon continuation)

A 5-minute close through the day's high or low after 12:00, then joining the first pullback. In our data such breaks held into the close about two times in three, but traded as brackets they were only break-even, so the watcher paper-tracks them until the live record says otherwise.

Power hour

The last hour, 14:00 to 15:00. Volume comes back and the day's extremes get tested (a new high or low ~43% of days), but most breakouts of the 2-3pm range fail, so only continuation with the day's direction counts.

Paper-tracked

The watcher used to call afternoon setups without an Approve ticket. As of 2026-09-28 afternoon tickets are live like morning; this glossary term remains for old archive days.

Trend day

A day that opens, goes one way, and keeps going (first-hour body over 0.7, price still beyond the first hour's range at 12:00). Maybe one day in ten. The only afternoon where continuation has real odds.

Time exit

Closing a trade because the clock says so, not the price. Every afternoon position is flat by 14:55; nothing is held overnight.

Setup D (14:30 go-with-the-day)

At 14:30, if the day is up from yesterday's close and the first hour agreed, ride it into 14:55 (and the mirror for down days). Two studies on index futures found the last half hour tends to finish the way the day went (~55% of the time, 61% when the first hour agrees). Small edge, one micro. Afternoon tickets are live as of 2026-09-28, same Approve / auto-place path as morning.

Grade (A+ / A / B / C)

How clean the setup is, decided from five things: a level, VWAP or the opening structure, a clean rejection or pullback, momentum, and timing. A+ has four or five of them lined up with low risk. A is solid with a flaw or two. B is tradable but imperfect: late, messy, thin, a wider stop — B is sent to your phone; you decide. C is watch-only (R:R under 1, a last-hour break against the day, or no confluence at all) and is never texted.

Risk (1-10)

Every alert adds up its own warts and prints them: a retest instead of a fresh level, a wide stop, lunch hours, trading against the day, a release nearby, thin volume. 1-3 is clean, 4-6 medium, 7-10 means one contract or pass. Nothing about the risk is hidden to make a setup look better.