MNQ day review

Wednesday, Sep 16, 2026 · MNQ.Z26 -132 pts open 29,388.50 · close 29,256.75 ← all days today →

The whole day

29,02829,13829,24829,35829,46829,57709:0010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:009:30 openHOD 29,552IBH 29,483PDH 29,453ONH 29,439OR15H 29,423OR15L/IBL/LOD 29,373Prior close 29,251ONL 29,226PDL 29,209

Calls and outcomes

TimeSetupEntryStopTargetOutcome
10:05B long · C r10 (C, watch only)
pullback
29,453.2529,419.5029,503.88loss (-1.0R)
15:00A long (paper) · B r4
ONL
29,273.0029,215.7529,332.38loss (-1.0R)

Your trades

No trades this day.

How the day played out

The day opened at 29,388, ranged 500 points (29,053 to 29,552), and closed at 29,257 (-132 from the open). The high printed at 11:45 and the low at 15:25 ET.

The middling 138-point gap filled at 14:55: yesterday's close (29,251) acted as the magnet the base rates say it is.

The morning rotated without committing: edges mattered, the middle did not.

The system sent 1 call (B): 0 won, 1 lost, -1.0R in total (paper).

Plus 1 watch-only (C) setup, shown but not sent: 0 would have won, -1.0R. These are tracked to check the C bar is set where it belongs, not calls you missed.

You took no trades this day.

Levels at the close

LevelPriceStatus
HOD29,552.50fresh
IBH29,482.75broken (closed through)
PDH29,452.75broken (closed through)
ONH29,439.00broken (closed through)
OR15H29,423.25broken (closed through)
VWAP29,377.65reference
OR15L29,373.00broken (closed through)
IBL29,373.00broken (closed through)
LOD29,373.00broken (closed through)
ON mid29,332.38reference
Prior close29,250.75reference
ONL29,225.75tested 14:55
PDL29,208.75broken (closed through)

Every alert

07:25 UPDATE
Early morning update (MNQ.Z26), 07:25 ET bar: 29,380.00. Phase: pre-market.

In plain English: Overnight the market moved up about 129 points from yesterday's 29,251 close, a middling gap. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,419) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 13 to 25 points ($25 to $51), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.

Levels: PDH 29,452.75 (+73) | ONH 29,419.00 (+39) | ON mid 29,322.38 (-58) | Prior close 29,250.75 (-129) | ONL 29,225.75 (-154) | PDL 29,208.75 (-171)
5m ATR 17 | daily ATR 397 | 9/21 EMA 29,379/29,376
News: 14:00 FOMC Economic Projections (High); 14:00 FOMC Statement (High); 14:00 Federal Funds Rate (High); 14:30 FOMC Press Conference (High)
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,322.38): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap +129 pts (0.33 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 13 pts ($25/micro), 1.5x cap = 25 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
08:25 UPDATE
Pre-open update (MNQ.Z26), 08:25 ET bar: 29,433.75. Phase: pre-market.

In plain English: Overnight the market moved up about 183 points from yesterday's 29,251 close, a middling gap. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,439) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 12 to 24 points ($24 to $49), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.

Levels: PDH 29,452.75 (+19) | ONH 29,439.00 (+5) | ON mid 29,332.38 (-101) | Prior close 29,250.75 (-183) | ONL 29,225.75 (-208) | PDL 29,208.75 (-225)
5m ATR 16 | daily ATR 397 | 9/21 EMA 29,421/29,406
News: 14:00 FOMC Economic Projections (High); 14:00 FOMC Statement (High); 14:00 Federal Funds Rate (High); 14:30 FOMC Press Conference (High)
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,332.38): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap +183 pts (0.46 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 12 pts ($24/micro), 1.5x cap = 24 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
09:10 BRIEF
MNQ morning map, Wed Sep 16 (MNQ.Z26)
PDH 29,452.75 | PDL 29,208.75 | prior close 29,250.75
ONH 29,439 | ONL 29,225.75 | ON mid 29,332.38
Pre-open 29,402.50: above ON mid -> ONH usually breaks first (~76%).
Gap +152 pts = 0.38 daily ATR (mid-size gap, ~25-40% fill).
Daily ATR 397 | 5-min ATR 23
News today: 14:00 FOMC Economic Projections (High); 14:00 FOMC Statement (High); 14:00 Federal Funds Rate (High); 14:30 FOMC Press Conference (High)
Rules: nothing before 9:45, max 3 alerts, flat by 11:30.
09:40 UPDATE
Window open, first 15 minutes done (MNQ.Z26), 09:40 ET bar: 29,406.00. Phase: open, watch only (9:30-9:45).

In plain English: Overnight the market moved up about 138 points from yesterday's 29,251 close, a middling gap. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,439) gets tested before the other end. Price is above today's average price (29,400), so the buyers have the upper hand so far. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 20 to 39 points ($39 to $78), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.

Levels: PDH 29,452.75 (+47) | ONH 29,439.00 (+33) | VWAP 29,400.23 (-6) | ON mid 29,332.38 (-74) | Prior close 29,250.75 (-155) | ONL 29,225.75 (-180) | PDL 29,208.75 (-197)
5m ATR 26 | daily ATR 397 | 9/21 EMA 29,397/29,397
News: 14:00 FOMC Economic Projections (High); 14:00 FOMC Statement (High); 14:00 Federal Funds Rate (High); 14:30 FOMC Press Conference (High)
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,332.38): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap +138 pts (0.35 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- ONH 29,439.00 (+33 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~13 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- PDH 29,452.75 (+47 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~13 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- ONL 29,225.75 (-180 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~13 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- PDL 29,208.75 (-197 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~13 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
10:00 HEADSUP
👀 The up move is pulling back to the average price and may set up a LONG. If the next 5-min bar turns back up off it, that's the go (~22 pts risk). About 5 min to decide.
10:05 WATCH C · risk 10
👁 C · risk 10/10 · LONG MNQ · first-pullback
In 29,453.25
Stop 29,419.50  (-$68)
Target 29,503.88  (+$101, 1.5R)
Runner if it flies: 29,537.62 (+$169)
Why: price is holding the pullback zone with the up move intact.
Out: a 5-min close back through the average price (29,432).
Size: 1 MNQ or pass · Day: opening drive up
(watch only - not sent to your phone)
10:25 READ
10:30 read (MNQ.Z26): first-hour body 0.59 (up) -> mode rotation.
IB 29,373.00-29,482.75 (110 pts = 0.28 daily ATR; narrow, extension likely).
Price 29,453.00 above VWAP 29,438.43; 9 over 21; VWAP crosses in hour one: 2.
Rotation: Setup A at fresh outer levels; Setup B only on a clean IB break.
11:25 DONE
11:30, morning window over (MNQ.Z26). Lunch until 13:00: only PDH/PDL/ONH/ONL fades qualify and they arrive graded B with the thin tape priced in. A 12:00 read will say whether lunch is dead. Afternoon opens 13:00 with the day's high/low as its levels.
This morning: 1 heads-up, 0 graded calls sent, 1 watch-only (C) on the page.
- Setup B long 10:05 [C, risk 10] (C, watch only): loss (-1.0R)
Your trades today: no trades.
Auto-flatten: no position to flatten
11:55 READ
12:00 midday read (MNQ.Z26): price 29,498.75, morning mode rotation. Still alive. The last 30 min ranged 70 pts; outer levels in reach: none close yet. Only PDH/PDL/ONH/ONL fades count over lunch, and they arrive graded B with +2 risk for the thin tape.
12:55 READ
13:00 afternoon read (MNQ.Z26): price 29,468.00, above VWAP 29,466.01; first hour was up; morning mode rotation.
Afternoon levels: day high 29,552.50 (+84) and day low 29,373 (-95).
Plan: a shallow poke of either that closes back inside = Setup A fade; a 5-min close through either = Setup C, join the first pullback (these held into the close ~2 of 3 times, best when they agree with the first hour). Lunch range is not a level.
5-min ATR 22: stops 17-33 pts. Caps: 0/3 afternoon alerts. Flat by 15:55.
14:55 HEADSUP
👀 overnight low (29,226) got poked and price snapped back. If the next 5-min bar closes back over it, it's a LONG (~44 pts, $87 risk). About 5 min to decide.
14:55 READ
15:00 power hour (MNQ.Z26): price 29,231.00, day down from the 29,388.50 open, below VWAP 29,443.34.
Day high 29,552.50 / low 29,220.75. Last hour made a new day extreme on ~43% of days, but breakouts of the 2-3pm range failed ~65%: only continuation WITH the day's direction counts, and a shallow poke of the day high/low that closes back inside is still a fade.
Everything closes by 15:55. No overnight.
15:00 PMSETUP B · risk 4
🟡 B · risk 4/10 · LONG MNQ · fade
In 29,273
Stop 29,215.75  (-$114)
Target 29,332.38  (+$119, 1.0R)
Runner if it flies: 29,373 (+$200)
Why: poked overnight low (29,226) and snapped back over it.
Out: a 5-min close back past 29,216.
Size: 1 MNQ, full size · Day: range-bound
(afternoon paper call - no Approve button)
15:05 INFO
Setup A long (B, risk 4) from 15:00: hit STOP at 15:10 (-1.0R).
15:25 WATCH C · risk None
SETUP: C  |  watch only, not tradable: 15:30 go-with-the-day (short) skipped: stop would be 177 pts, over 2x ATR.