| Time | Setup | Entry | Stop | Target | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | A long · B r5 ONL | 29,273.75 | 29,210.75 | 29,349.69 | loss (-1.0R) |
| 14:50 | A long (paper) · B r6 ONL | 29,243.25 | 29,224.50 | 29,271.38 | loss (-1.0R) |
| 15:25 | D short (paper) · A r5 15:30 go-with-the-day | 29,238.50 | 29,263.75 | 29,200.62 | flat (-0.5R) |
No trades this day.
The day opened at 29,422, ranged 244 points (29,209 to 29,453), and closed at 29,251 (-171 from the open). The high printed at 09:45 and the low at 15:50 ET.
The small 28-point gap filled at 09:45: yesterday's close (29,449) acted as the magnet the base rates say it is.
The morning rotated without committing: edges mattered, the middle did not.
The system sent 3 calls (B, B, A): 0 won, 2 lost, 1 other, -2.5R in total.
You took no trades this day.
| Level | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|
| PDH | 29,604.25 | fresh |
| ONH | 29,495.75 | fresh |
| IBH | 29,452.75 | fresh |
| HOD | 29,452.75 | fresh |
| Prior close | 29,449.00 | reference |
| OR15H | 29,441.75 | fresh |
| OR15L | 29,371.75 | broken (closed through) |
| ON mid | 29,363.50 | reference |
| VWAP | 29,305.43 | reference |
| IBL | 29,302.25 | broken (closed through) |
| ONL | 29,231.25 | tested 10:50 |
| LOD | 29,215.75 | tested 15:35 |
| PDL | 29,167.50 | fresh |
Early morning update (MNQ.Z26), 07:25 ET bar: 29,404.75. Phase: pre-market. In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 44 points from yesterday's 29,449 close, a small gap. Gaps that size usually get filled, so 29,449 is a magnet today. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,496) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 14 to 28 points ($28 to $56), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you. Levels: PDH 29,604.25 (+200) | ONH 29,495.75 (+91) | Prior close 29,449.00 (+44) | ON mid 29,363.50 (-41) | ONL 29,231.25 (-174) | PDL 29,167.50 (-237) 5m ATR 19 | daily ATR 397 | 9/21 EMA 29,400/29,374 News: 08:30 Retail Sales (approx.) (High) Watch: - Price is above the ON mid (29,363.50): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%. - Gap -44 pts is tiny (0.11 daily ATR): the prior close 29,449.00 is a magnet (fills ~78%); expect the overnight range to get swept. - 8:30 release today: the open runs hotter than usual (ATR ~1.5x). Stops widen, size stays 1 micro, be pickier. - 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here. - Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 14 pts ($28/micro), 1.5x cap = 28 pts. Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
Pre-open update (MNQ.Z26), 08:25 ET bar: 29,422.50. Phase: pre-market. In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 26 points from yesterday's 29,449 close, a small gap. Gaps that size usually get filled, so 29,449 is a magnet today. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,496) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 15 to 30 points ($30 to $60), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you. Levels: PDH 29,604.25 (+182) | ONH 29,495.75 (+73) | Prior close 29,449.00 (+26) | ON mid 29,363.50 (-59) | ONL 29,231.25 (-191) | PDL 29,167.50 (-255) 5m ATR 20 | daily ATR 397 | 9/21 EMA 29,418/29,403 News: 08:30 Retail Sales (approx.) (High) Watch: - Price is above the ON mid (29,363.50): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%. - Gap -26 pts is tiny (0.07 daily ATR): the prior close 29,449.00 is a magnet (fills ~78%); expect the overnight range to get swept. - 8:30 release today: the open runs hotter than usual (ATR ~1.5x). Stops widen, size stays 1 micro, be pickier. - 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here. - Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 15 pts ($30/micro), 1.5x cap = 30 pts. Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
MNQ morning map, Tue Sep 15 (MNQ.Z26) PDH 29,604.25 | PDL 29,167.50 | prior close 29,449 ONH 29,495.75 | ONL 29,231.25 | ON mid 29,363.50 Pre-open 29,428.75: above ON mid -> ONH usually breaks first (~76%). Gap -20 pts = 0.05 daily ATR (tiny gap, fills ~78% same day). Daily ATR 397 | 5-min ATR 24 News today: 08:30 Retail Sales (approx.) (High) Rules: nothing before 9:45, max 3 alerts, flat by 11:30.
Window open, first 15 minutes done (MNQ.Z26), 09:40 ET bar: 29,435.75. Phase: open, watch only (9:30-9:45). In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 28 points from yesterday's 29,449 close, a small gap. Gaps that size usually get filled, so 29,449 is a magnet today. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,496) gets tested before the other end. Price is above today's average price (29,410), so the buyers have the upper hand so far. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 21 to 43 points ($43 to $85), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you. Levels: PDH 29,604.25 (+168) | ONH 29,495.75 (+60) | Prior close 29,449.00 (+13) | VWAP 29,409.87 (-26) | ON mid 29,363.50 (-72) | ONL 29,231.25 (-204) | PDL 29,167.50 (-268) 5m ATR 28 | daily ATR 397 | 9/21 EMA 29,425/29,422 News: 08:30 Retail Sales (approx.) (High) Watch: - Price is above the ON mid (29,363.50): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%. - Gap -28 pts is tiny (0.07 daily ATR): the prior close 29,449.00 is a magnet (fills ~78%); expect the overnight range to get swept. - 8:30 release today: the open runs hotter than usual (ATR ~1.5x). Stops widen, size stays 1 micro, be pickier. - ONH 29,495.75 (+60 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~14 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade. - PDH 29,604.25 (+168 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~14 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade. - ONL 29,231.25 (-204 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~14 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade. Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
👀 opening-range low (29,372) got poked and price snapped back. If the next 5-min bar closes back over it, it's a LONG (~22 pts, $44 risk). About 5 min to decide.
10:30 read (MNQ.Z26): first-hour body 0.63 (down) -> mode rotation. IB 29,302.25-29,452.75 (150 pts = 0.38 daily ATR; narrow, extension likely). Price 29,327.00 below VWAP 29,389.96; 21 over 9; VWAP crosses in hour one: 2. Rotation: Setup A at fresh outer levels; Setup B only on a clean IB break.
👀 first-hour low (29,302) got poked and price snapped back. If the next 5-min bar closes back over it, it's a LONG (~24 pts, $48 risk). About 5 min to decide.
👀 overnight low (29,231) got poked and price snapped back. If the next 5-min bar closes back over it, it's a LONG (~29 pts, $58 risk). About 5 min to decide.
🟡 B · risk 5/10 · LONG MNQ · fade In 29,273.75 (limit, may not fill) Stop 29,210.75 (-$126) Target 29,349.69 (+$152, 1.2R) Runner if it flies: 29,371.75 (+$196) Why: poked overnight low (29,231) and snapped back over it. Out: a 5-min close back past 29,211. Size: 1 MNQ only · Day: range-bound Tap Approve for a 1-micro bracket (ticket A1105, 15 min).
Setup A long limit at 29,273.75 would have FILLED at 11:05.
11:30, morning window over (MNQ.Z26). Lunch until 13:00: only PDH/PDL/ONH/ONL fades qualify and they arrive graded B with the thin tape priced in. A 12:00 read will say whether lunch is dead. Afternoon opens 13:00 with the day's high/low as its levels. This morning: 3 heads-up, 1 graded calls sent, 0 watch-only (C) on the page. - Setup A long 11:00 [B, risk 5]: open Your trades today: no trades. Auto-flatten: no position to flatten
12:00 midday read (MNQ.Z26): price 29,277.25, morning mode rotation. Still alive. The last 30 min ranged 45 pts; outer levels in reach: none close yet. Only PDH/PDL/ONH/ONL fades count over lunch, and they arrive graded B with +2 risk for the thin tape.
13:00 afternoon read (MNQ.Z26): price 29,279.75, below VWAP 29,324.69; first hour was down; morning mode rotation. Afternoon levels: day high 29,452.75 (+173) and day low 29,215.75 (-64). Plan: a shallow poke of either that closes back inside = Setup A fade; a 5-min close through either = Setup C, join the first pullback (these held into the close ~2 of 3 times, best when they agree with the first hour). Lunch range is not a level. 5-min ATR 26: stops 20-40 pts. Caps: 0/3 afternoon alerts. Flat by 15:55.
👀 The down move is pulling back to the average price and may set up a SHORT. If the next 5-min bar turns back down off it, that's the go (~61 pts risk). About 5 min to decide.
SETUP: C | watch only, not tradable: skip: stop 67 pts is over 2x ATR (51) Setup C (short) pullback to 29,306.25 triggered at 13:20.
👀 overnight low (29,231) got poked and price snapped back. If the next 5-min bar closes back over it, it's a LONG (~15 pts, $29 risk). About 5 min to decide.
🟡 B · risk 6/10 · LONG MNQ · fade In 29,243.25 Stop 29,224.50 (-$38) Target 29,271.38 (+$56, 1.5R) Runner if it flies: 29,290.12 (+$94) Why: poked overnight low (29,231) and snapped back over it. Out: a 5-min close back past 29,224. Size: 1 MNQ only · Day: range-bound (afternoon paper call - no Approve button)
15:00 power hour (MNQ.Z26): price 29,252.50, day down from the 29,421.50 open, below VWAP 29,312.88. Day high 29,452.75 / low 29,215.75. Last hour made a new day extreme on ~43% of days, but breakouts of the 2-3pm range failed ~65%: only continuation WITH the day's direction counts, and a shallow poke of the day high/low that closes back inside is still a fade. Everything closes by 15:55. No overnight.
🟢 A · risk 5/10 · SHORT MNQ · close-into-the-bell In 29,238.50 Stop 29,263.75 (-$50) Target 29,200.62 (+$76, 1.5R) Runner if it flies: 29,167.50 (+$142) Why: the day has been down since the open, so this rides it into the 4pm close. Out: a 5-min close back against the 3:00-3:30 range, or 3:55, whichever comes first. Size: 1 MNQ only · Day: range-bound (afternoon paper call - no Approve button)
Setup A long (B, risk 6) from 14:50: hit STOP at 15:40 (-1.0R).
👀 today's low (29,216) got poked and price snapped back. If the next 5-min bar closes back over it, it's a LONG (~12 pts, $24 risk). About 5 min to decide.
SETUP: C | watch only, not tradable: skip: strong level 29,231 inside 1R (no room) LOD 29,215.75 poked and closed back inside at 15:40.
Setup A long (B, risk 5) from 11:00: hit STOP at 15:55 (-1.0R).
15:55: flat by the close. Anything still open from today's plans should be closed now; nothing is held overnight. Auto-flatten: no position to flatten