MNQ day review

Early morning update (MNQ.U26), 07:25 ET bar: 29,663.25. Phase: pre-market.

In plain English: Overnight the market moved up about 128 points from yesterday's 29,535 close, a middling gap. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,698) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 11 to 22 points ($22 to $44), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.

Levels: ONH 29,698.50 (+35) | ON mid 29,590.00 (-73) | PDH 29,585.00 (-78) | Prior close 29,535.00 (-128) | ONL 29,481.50 (-182) | PDL 29,199.25 (-464)
5m ATR 15 | daily ATR 414 | 9/21 EMA 29,664/29,663
News: 08:30 Average Hourly Earnings m/m (High); 08:30 Non-Farm Employment Change (High); 08:30 Unemployment Rate (High)
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,590.00): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap +128 pts (0.31 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- 8:30 release today: the open runs hotter than usual (ATR ~1.5x). Stops widen, size stays 1 micro, be pickier.
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 11 pts ($22/micro), 1.5x cap = 22 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/

Pre-open update (MNQ.U26), 08:25 ET bar: 29,686.25. Phase: pre-market.

In plain English: Overnight the market moved up about 151 points from yesterday's 29,535 close, a middling gap. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,700) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 14 to 28 points ($28 to $56), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.

Levels: ONH 29,700.00 (+14) | ON mid 29,590.75 (-96) | PDH 29,585.00 (-101) | Prior close 29,535.00 (-151) | ONL 29,481.50 (-205) | PDL 29,199.25 (-487)
5m ATR 19 | daily ATR 414 | 9/21 EMA 29,667/29,666
News: 08:30 Average Hourly Earnings m/m (High); 08:30 Non-Farm Employment Change (High); 08:30 Unemployment Rate (High)
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,590.75): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap +151 pts (0.37 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- 8:30 release today: the open runs hotter than usual (ATR ~1.5x). Stops widen, size stays 1 micro, be pickier.
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 14 pts ($28/micro), 1.5x cap = 28 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/

Window open, first 15 minutes done (MNQ.U26), 09:35 ET bar: 29,629.50. Phase: open, watch only (9:30-9:45).

In plain English: Overnight the market moved up about 54 points from yesterday's 29,535 close, a small gap. Gaps that size usually get filled, so 29,535 is a magnet today. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,720) gets tested before the other end. Price is above today's average price (29,616), so the buyers have the upper hand so far. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 25 to 50 points ($50 to $101), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.

Levels: ONH 29,720.00 (+90) | VWAP 29,615.87 (-14) | ON mid 29,600.75 (-29) | PDH 29,585.00 (-44) | Prior close 29,535.00 (-94) | ONL 29,481.50 (-148) | PDL 29,199.25 (-430)
5m ATR 34 | daily ATR 414 | 9/21 EMA 29,591/29,598
News: 08:30 Average Hourly Earnings m/m (High); 08:30 Non-Farm Employment Change (High); 08:30 Unemployment Rate (High)
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,600.75): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap +54 pts is tiny (0.13 daily ATR): the prior close 29,535.00 is a magnet (fills ~78%); expect the overnight range to get swept.
- 8:30 release today: the open runs hotter than usual (ATR ~1.5x). Stops widen, size stays 1 micro, be pickier.
- ONH 29,720.00 (+90 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~17 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- ONL 29,481.50 (-148 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~17 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- PDL 29,199.25 (-430 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~17 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/