Every alert
07:25 UPDATEEarly morning update (MNQ.U26), 07:25 ET bar: 29,166.75. Phase: pre-market.
In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 23 points from yesterday's 29,190 close, a small gap. Gaps that size usually get filled, so 29,190 is a magnet today. We are below the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight low (29,075) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 16 to 31 points ($31 to $63), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: ONH 29,293.00 (+126) | PDH 29,211.75 (+45) | Prior close 29,189.75 (+23) | ON mid 29,184.00 (+17) | ONL 29,075.00 (-92) | PDL 29,017.25 (-150)
5m ATR 21 | daily ATR 397 | 9/21 EMA 29,155/29,154
News: 10:00 ISM Services PMI (Medium)
Watch:
- Price is below the ON mid (29,184.00): ONL usually breaks first (~76%); ONH is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap -23 pts is tiny (0.06 daily ATR): the prior close 29,189.75 is a magnet (fills ~78%); expect the overnight range to get swept.
- 10:00 release today: no entries 9:55-10:15. Expect a second impulse right at 10:00.
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 16 pts ($31/micro), 1.5x cap = 31 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
08:25 UPDATEPre-open update (MNQ.U26), 08:25 ET bar: 29,146.25. Phase: pre-market.
In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 44 points from yesterday's 29,190 close, a small gap. Gaps that size usually get filled, so 29,190 is a magnet today. We are below the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight low (29,075) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 18 to 35 points ($35 to $70), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: ONH 29,293.00 (+147) | PDH 29,211.75 (+66) | Prior close 29,189.75 (+44) | ON mid 29,184.00 (+38) | ONL 29,075.00 (-71) | PDL 29,017.25 (-129)
5m ATR 23 | daily ATR 396 | 9/21 EMA 29,131/29,137
News: 10:00 ISM Services PMI (Medium)
Watch:
- Price is below the ON mid (29,184.00): ONL usually breaks first (~76%); ONH is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap -44 pts is tiny (0.11 daily ATR): the prior close 29,189.75 is a magnet (fills ~78%); expect the overnight range to get swept.
- 10:00 release today: no entries 9:55-10:15. Expect a second impulse right at 10:00.
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 18 pts ($35/micro), 1.5x cap = 35 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
09:10 BRIEFMNQ morning map, Thu Sep 03 (MNQ.U26)
PDH 29,211.75 | PDL 29,017.25 | prior close 29,189.75
ONH 29,293 | ONL 29,075 | ON mid 29,184
Pre-open 29,239.25: above ON mid -> ONH usually breaks first (~76%).
Gap +50 pts = 0.13 daily ATR (tiny gap, fills ~78% same day).
Daily ATR 396 | 5-min ATR 30
News today: 10:00 ISM Services PMI (Medium)
10:00 release: no entries 9:55-10:15.
Rules: nothing before 9:45, max 3 alerts, flat by 11:30.
09:40 UPDATEWindow open, first 15 minutes done (MNQ.U26), 09:40 ET bar: 29,345.00. Phase: open, watch only (9:30-9:45).
In plain English: Overnight the market moved up about 59 points from yesterday's 29,190 close, a small gap. Gaps that size usually get filled, so 29,190 is a magnet today. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,293) gets tested before the other end. Price is above today's average price (29,288), so the buyers have the upper hand so far. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 31 to 62 points ($62 to $124), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: ONH 29,293.00 (-52) | VWAP 29,288.27 (-57) | PDH 29,211.75 (-133) | Prior close 29,189.75 (-155) | ON mid 29,184.00 (-161) | ONL 29,075.00 (-270) | PDL 29,017.25 (-328)
5m ATR 41 | daily ATR 396 | 9/21 EMA 29,267/29,224
News: 10:00 ISM Services PMI (Medium)
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,184.00): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap +59 pts is tiny (0.15 daily ATR): the prior close 29,189.75 is a magnet (fills ~78%); expect the overnight range to get swept.
- 10:00 release today: no entries 9:55-10:15. Expect a second impulse right at 10:00.
- ONL 29,075.00 (-270 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~21 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- PDL 29,017.25 (-328 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~21 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- Broken today: PDH 29,211.75, ONH 29,293.00. A retest that holds is Setup B territory; do not fade these.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
10:20 HEADSUPHEADS-UP: Setup A forming at OR15H 29,359.75. The 10:20 bar poked 4 pts through and closed back inside. If the next bar closes below 29,345.88, it's a go (short). Stop would be ~29,368.75 (35 pts, $70). ATR 47.
10:25 READ10:30 read (MNQ.U26): first-hour body 0.54 (up) -> mode rotation.
IB 29,199.25-29,375.25 (176 pts = 0.44 daily ATR; narrow, extension likely).
Price 29,343.25 above VWAP 29,306.75; 9 over 21; VWAP crosses in hour one: 2.
Rotation: Setup A at fresh outer levels; Setup B only on a clean IB break.
10:25 CONFIRMED B · risk 2SETUP A SHORT at 10:25 ET, MNQ.U26
SETUP: B | RISK: 2 | BIAS: Short MNQ
Entry: ~29,343.25 (market at the confirm close)
Stop / invalidation: 29,377.81 (35 pts, $69 per contract)
T1 / T2: 29,306.75 (1.1R, $73) / 29,293.00 (1.5R)
R:R: 1.1 at T1
Size suggestion: 1 MNQ, full size
Why:
- OR15H 29,359.75 held: poked 4 pts through and closed back inside (fresh level)
- VWAP 29,306.75 sits between 1R and 1.5R: a natural magnet for the snap-back
- 10:25: prime window for this setup
Fail condition:
- if price re-breaks OR15H and holds beyond it, the stop run was real, not a fake
- a 5-min close beyond 29,377.81 means the read was wrong: out, no averaging down
Day type: rotation, first-hour body 0.54
OR15H 29,359.75: 10:20 bar poked to 29,363.75 and closed back inside; 10:25 bar confirmed (close 29,343.25). ATR 46 | VWAP 29,306.75 | mode rotation.
Ticket A1030: approve within 15 min to place a 1-micro bracket (orders ARMED).
10:30 INFOSetup A short (B, risk 2) from 10:25: hit TARGET at 10:35 (+1.1R).
11:25 DONE11:30, morning window over (MNQ.U26). Lunch until 13:00: only PDH/PDL/ONH/ONL fades qualify and they arrive graded B with the thin tape priced in. A 12:00 read will say whether lunch is dead. Afternoon opens 13:00 with the day's high/low as its levels.
This morning: 1 heads-up, 1 graded calls sent, 0 watch-only (C) on the page.
- Setup A short 10:25 [B, risk 2]: win (+1.1R)
Your trades today: no trades.
11:55 READ12:00 midday read (MNQ.U26): price 29,538.75, morning mode rotation. Dead. The last 30 min ranged 42 pts (about 1.1 ATR) and no outer level is within 0.75 ATR. Nothing here until 13:00; lunch breakouts fail more than at any other hour.
12:55 READ13:00 afternoon read (MNQ.U26): price 29,527.50, above VWAP 29,374.70; first hour was up; morning mode rotation.
Afternoon levels: day high 29,548 (+20) and day low 29,199.25 (-328).
Plan: a shallow poke of either that closes back inside = Setup A fade; a 5-min close through either = Setup C, join the first pullback (these held into the close ~2 of 3 times, best when they agree with the first hour). Lunch range is not a level.
5-min ATR 28: stops 21-43 pts. Caps: 0/3 afternoon alerts. Flat by 15:55.
13:05 HEADSUPHEADS-UP: Setup B (long) pullback is in the zone. Direction from close above IB high; drive extreme 29,548.00, pullback to 29,492.25 (18% retrace), 21 EMA 29,494.22, VWAP 29,377.29. Watch for a trend bar closing above the 9 EMA (29,513.42) and the prior bar's high. Stop would be ~29,487.25 (21 pts). Missing for an A: EMA slope.
13:25 PMSETUP B · risk 6AFTERNOON SETUP (paper-tracked, no ticket) SETUP C LONG at 13:25 ET, MNQ.U26
SETUP: B | RISK: 6 | BIAS: Long MNQ
Entry: ~29,503.50 (market at the confirm close)
Stop / invalidation: 29,471.00 (32 pts, $65 per contract)
T1 / T2: 29,552.25 (1.5R, $98) / 29,584.75 (2.5R)
R:R: 1.5 at T1
Size suggestion: 1 MNQ only
Why:
- pullback to 29,476.00 held the 21 EMA / VWAP zone (24% of the drive from close above IB high)
- price on the right side of VWAP 29,381.24
- 9/21 EMA stacked and sloping up, trigger bar body 0.80
- 13:25: prime window for this setup
Fail condition:
- a 5-min close back through VWAP 29,381.24 kills the drive
- Main risk: stop 1.3 ATR
Day type: afternoon after a rotation morning
Risk factors: stop 1.3 ATR (+2); continuation without a trend-day morning (Steve: only when the day type supports it) (+2)
Direction: close above IB high. Drive 29,246.00 -> 29,548.00, pullback to 29,476.00 held the 21 EMA / VWAP zone; 13:25 bar closed 29,503.50 above the 9 EMA and the prior bar's high. ATR 26 | VWAP 29,381.24 | 9/21 EMA 29,501/29,493 | mode rotation.
13:50 INFOSetup C long (B, risk 6) from 13:25: hit TARGET at 13:55 (+1.5R).
13:50 HEADSUPHEADS-UP: Setup A forming at HOD 29,548.00. The 13:50 bar poked 5 pts through and closed back inside. If the next bar closes below 29,539.00, it's a go (short). Stop would be ~29,558.00 (17 pts, $35). ATR 23.
14:55 READ15:00 power hour (MNQ.U26): price 29,568.50, day up from the 29,248.50 open, above VWAP 29,402.76.
Day high 29,585 / low 29,199.25. Last hour made a new day extreme on ~43% of days, but breakouts of the 2-3pm range failed ~65%: only continuation WITH the day's direction counts, and a shallow poke of the day high/low that closes back inside is still a fade.
Everything closes by 15:55. No overnight.
15:00 HEADSUPHEADS-UP: Setup B (long) pullback is in the zone. Direction from close above IB high; drive extreme 29,585.00, pullback to 29,552.00 (10% retrace), 21 EMA 29,552.40, VWAP 29,403.80. Watch for a trend bar closing above the 9 EMA (29,565.58) and the prior bar's high. Stop would be ~29,547.00 (14 pts). Missing for an A: EMA slope.
15:08 TRADEFilled: now long 1 from 29,550.50.
15:12 TRADETrade closed: long 1 MNQ.U26 29,550.50 -> 29,541.75 = -8.75 pts ($-17.50), held 4 min, unplanned. Today: 1 trade, 0 wins, -8.75 pts ($-17.50).
15:25 PMSETUP A+ · risk 2AFTERNOON SETUP (paper-tracked, no ticket) SETUP D LONG at 15:30 ET, MNQ.U26: go with the day into the close
SETUP: A+ | RISK: 2 | BIAS: Long MNQ
Entry: ~29,533.25 (market at the confirm close)
Stop / invalidation: 29,520.42 (13 pts, $26 per contract)
T1 / T2: 29,565.33 (2.5R, $64)
R:R: 2.5 at T1
Size suggestion: 1 MNQ, full size
Why:
- the last half hour tends to finish the way the day went (two futures studies, ~55% hit, 61% when the first hour agrees; our own data +0.1R per trade)
- day is up 344 pts from yesterday's close; stop beyond the 15:00-15:30 low
- price on the right side of VWAP 29,408.08
- first hour went the same way (that is where the edge mostly lives)
Fail condition:
- a 5-min close back through the 15:00-15:30 range against you = out; flat by 15:55 regardless
- a 5-min close beyond 29,520.42 means the read was wrong: out, no averaging down
Day type: afternoon after a rotation morning
Day is up 344 pts from yesterday's close (1.16%), first hour agrees. Hold to 15:55, then flat.
15:45 INFOSetup D long (A+, risk 2) from 15:25: hit STOP at 15:50 (-1.0R).