| Time | Setup | Entry | Stop | Target | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:05 | A long OR15L | 29,084.00 | 29,027.25 | 29,169.12 | nofill (+0.0R) |
| Entry | Side | In | Out | Pts | $ | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:27 | long | 29,187.00 | 29,182.25 | -4.75 | -10 | Setup A OR15L (10:05) |
The day opened at 29,098, ranged 194 points (29,017 to 29,212), and closed at 29,190 (+92 from the open). The high printed at 10:35 and the low at 09:55 ET.
The small 28-point gap filled at 10:10: yesterday's close (29,126) acted as the magnet the base rates say it is.
The morning rotated without committing: edges mattered, the middle did not.
The system made 1 call: 0 won, 0 lost, 1 other, +0.0R in total.
You traded 1 round trip: -4.75 pts ($-9.50). All of them matched system calls.
| Level | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|
| PDH | 29,317.25 | fresh |
| HOD | 29,211.75 | fresh |
| IBH | 29,194.00 | broken (closed through) |
| ONH | 29,171.25 | broken (closed through) |
| VWAP | 29,138.76 | reference |
| Prior close | 29,126.00 | reference |
| OR15H | 29,119.00 | broken (closed through) |
| ON mid | 29,049.25 | reference |
| OR15L | 29,036.75 | tested 10:00 |
| IBL | 29,017.25 | fresh |
| LOD | 29,017.25 | fresh |
| PDL | 29,001.75 | fresh |
| ONL | 28,927.25 | fresh |
Early morning update (MNQ.U26), 07:25 ET bar: 29,022.50. Phase: pre-market. In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 104 points from yesterday's 29,126 close, a small gap. Gaps that size usually get filled, so 29,126 is a magnet today. We are below the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight low (28,927) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 21 to 42 points ($42 to $84), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you. Levels: PDH 29,317.25 (+295) | ONH 29,171.25 (+149) | Prior close 29,126.00 (+104) | ON mid 29,049.25 (+27) | PDL 29,001.75 (-21) | ONL 28,927.25 (-95) 5m ATR 28 | daily ATR 397 | 9/21 EMA 28,998/28,989 Watch: - Price is below the ON mid (29,049.25): ONL usually breaks first (~76%); ONH is reached first only ~23%. - Gap -104 pts is tiny (0.26 daily ATR): the prior close 29,126.00 is a magnet (fills ~78%); expect the overnight range to get swept. - 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here. - Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 21 pts ($42/micro), 1.5x cap = 42 pts. Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
Pre-open update (MNQ.U26), 08:25 ET bar: 29,108.00. Phase: pre-market. In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 18 points from yesterday's 29,126 close, a small gap. Gaps that size usually get filled, so 29,126 is a magnet today. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,171) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 22 to 45 points ($45 to $90), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you. Levels: PDH 29,317.25 (+209) | ONH 29,171.25 (+63) | Prior close 29,126.00 (+18) | ON mid 29,049.25 (-59) | PDL 29,001.75 (-106) | ONL 28,927.25 (-181) 5m ATR 30 | daily ATR 397 | 9/21 EMA 29,090/29,055 Watch: - Price is above the ON mid (29,049.25): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%. - Gap -18 pts is tiny (0.05 daily ATR): the prior close 29,126.00 is a magnet (fills ~78%); expect the overnight range to get swept. - 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here. - Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 22 pts ($45/micro), 1.5x cap = 45 pts. Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
MNQ morning map, Wed Sep 02 (MNQ.U26) PDH 29,317.25 | PDL 29,001.75 | prior close 29,126 ONH 29,171.25 | ONL 28,927.25 | ON mid 29,049.25 Pre-open 29,067.75: above ON mid -> ONH usually breaks first (~76%). Gap -58 pts = 0.15 daily ATR (tiny gap, fills ~78% same day). Daily ATR 397 | 5-min ATR 25 News: nothing high-impact on the calendar. Rules: nothing before 9:45, max 3 alerts, flat by 11:30.
Window open, first 15 minutes done (MNQ.U26), 09:40 ET bar: 29,092.00. Phase: open, watch only (9:30-9:45). In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 28 points from yesterday's 29,126 close, a small gap. Gaps that size usually get filled, so 29,126 is a magnet today. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,171) gets tested before the other end. Price is above today's average price (29,080), so the buyers have the upper hand so far. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 23 to 45 points ($45 to $91), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you. Levels: PDH 29,317.25 (+225) | ONH 29,171.25 (+79) | Prior close 29,126.00 (+34) | VWAP 29,079.95 (-12) | ON mid 29,049.25 (-43) | PDL 29,001.75 (-90) | ONL 28,927.25 (-165) 5m ATR 30 | daily ATR 397 | 9/21 EMA 29,082/29,071 Watch: - Price is above the ON mid (29,049.25): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%. - Gap -28 pts is tiny (0.07 daily ATR): the prior close 29,126.00 is a magnet (fills ~78%); expect the overnight range to get swept. - ONH 29,171.25 (+79 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~15 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade. - PDH 29,317.25 (+225 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~15 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade. - ONL 28,927.25 (-165 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~15 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade. - PDL 29,001.75 (-90 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~15 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade. Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
HEADS-UP: Setup A forming at OR15L 29,036.75. The 10:00 bar poked 4 pts through and closed back inside. If the next bar closes above 29,058.12, it's a go (long). Stop would be ~29,027.25 (56 pts, $112). ATR 36.
SETUP A LONG CONFIRMED at 10:05 ET, MNQ.U26. OR15L 29,036.75: 10:00 bar poked to 29,032.25 and closed back inside; 10:05 bar confirmed (close 29,096.25). Entry ~29,084.00 | Stop 29,027.25 (57 pts, $114) | Target 29,169.12 (1.5R, $170) ATR 36 | VWAP 29,070.92 | mode unknown Notes: poke 4 pts (0.12 ATR); fresh level; LIMIT entry at the poke bar's high (retest); may not fill; do not chase; target = 1.5R Ticket A1010: approve within 15 min to place a 1-micro bracket (orders ARMED).
Filled: now long 1 from 29,187.00.
Trade closed: long 1 MNQ.U26 29,187.00 -> 29,182.25 = -4.75 pts ($-9.50), held 3 min, Setup A OR15L (10:05). Today: 1 trade, 0 wins, -4.75 pts ($-9.50).
10:30 read (MNQ.U26): first-hour body 0.50 (up) -> mode rotation. IB 29,017.25-29,194.00 (177 pts = 0.45 daily ATR; narrow, extension likely). Price 29,187.25 above VWAP 29,092.62; 9 over 21; VWAP crosses in hour one: 2. Rotation: Setup A at fresh outer levels; Setup B only on a clean IB break.
11:30, morning session over (MNQ.U26). Flat now; the afternoon window opens at 13:00 with the day's high/low as its levels. Today: 1 heads-up, 1 confirmed. - Setup A long 10:05: open Your trades today: 1 trade, 0 wins, -4.75 pts ($-9.50).
13:00 afternoon read (MNQ.U26): price 29,154.75, above VWAP 29,131.30; first hour was up; morning mode rotation. Afternoon levels: day high 29,211.75 (+57) and day low 29,017.25 (-138). Plan: a shallow poke of either that closes back inside = Setup A fade; a 5-min close through either = Setup C, join the first pullback (these held into the close ~2 of 3 times, best when they agree with the first hour). Lunch range is not a level. 5-min ATR 27: stops 20-40 pts. Caps: 0/2 afternoon alerts. Flat by 15:55.
15:00 power hour (MNQ.U26): price 29,145.50, day up from the 29,098.25 open, above VWAP 29,135.63. Day high 29,211.75 / low 29,017.25. Last hour made a new day extreme on ~43% of days, but breakouts of the 2-3pm range failed ~65%: only continuation WITH the day's direction counts, and a shallow poke of the day high/low that closes back inside is still a fade. Everything closes by 15:55. No overnight.
15:30 go-with-the-day (long) skipped: stop would be 35 pts, over 1.5x ATR.