Every alert
07:25 UPDATEEarly morning update (MNQ.U26), 07:25 ET bar: 29,570.00. Phase: pre-market.
In plain English: Overnight the market moved up about 270 points from yesterday's 29,300 close, a middling gap. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,661) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 17 to 33 points ($33 to $67), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: ONH 29,661.25 (+91) | ON mid 29,531.75 (-38) | ONL 29,402.25 (-168) | PDH 29,368.75 (-201) | Prior close 29,299.50 (-270) | PDL 29,156.25 (-414)
5m ATR 22 | daily ATR 402 | 9/21 EMA 29,593/29,594
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,531.75): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap +270 pts (0.67 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 17 pts ($33/micro), 1.5x cap = 33 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
08:25 UPDATEPre-open update (MNQ.U26), 08:25 ET bar: 29,578.75. Phase: pre-market.
In plain English: Overnight the market moved up about 279 points from yesterday's 29,300 close, a middling gap. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,661) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 17 to 34 points ($34 to $69), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: ONH 29,661.25 (+82) | ON mid 29,531.75 (-47) | ONL 29,402.25 (-176) | PDH 29,368.75 (-210) | Prior close 29,299.50 (-279) | PDL 29,156.25 (-422)
5m ATR 23 | daily ATR 402 | 9/21 EMA 29,574/29,576
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,531.75): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap +279 pts (0.69 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 17 pts ($34/micro), 1.5x cap = 34 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
09:10 BRIEFMNQ morning map, Thu Aug 27 (MNQ.U26)
PDH 29,368.75 | PDL 29,156.25 | prior close 29,299.50
ONH 29,661.25 | ONL 29,402.25 | ON mid 29,531.75
Pre-open 29,554.50: above ON mid -> ONH usually breaks first (~76%).
Gap +255 pts = 0.63 daily ATR (mid-size gap, ~25-40% fill).
Daily ATR 402 | 5-min ATR 22
News: nothing high-impact on the calendar.
Rules: nothing before 9:45, max 3 alerts, flat by 11:30.
09:40 UPDATEWindow open, first 15 minutes done (MNQ.U26), 09:40 ET bar: 29,575.50. Phase: open, watch only (9:30-9:45).
In plain English: Overnight the market moved up about 224 points from yesterday's 29,300 close, a middling gap. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,661) gets tested before the other end. Price is above today's average price (29,510), so the buyers have the upper hand so far. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 28 to 56 points ($56 to $113), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: ONH 29,661.25 (+86) | ON mid 29,531.75 (-44) | VWAP 29,509.96 (-66) | ONL 29,402.25 (-173) | PDH 29,368.75 (-207) | Prior close 29,299.50 (-276) | PDL 29,156.25 (-419)
5m ATR 38 | daily ATR 402 | 9/21 EMA 29,530/29,543
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,531.75): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap +224 pts (0.56 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- ONH 29,661.25 (+86 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~19 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- ONL 29,402.25 (-173 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~19 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- PDL 29,156.25 (-419 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~19 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- Broken today: PDH 29,368.75. A retest that holds is Setup B territory; do not fade these.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
10:15 HEADSUPHEADS-UP: Setup A forming at OR15H 29,589.50. The 10:15 bar poked 4 pts through and closed back inside. If the next bar closes below 29,576.00, it's a go (short). Stop would be ~29,599.00 (41 pts, $82). ATR 54.
10:25 READ10:30 read (MNQ.U26): first-hour body 0.42 (up) -> mode chop.
IB 29,424.00-29,622.25 (198 pts = 0.49 daily ATR; narrow, extension likely).
Price 29,607.25 above VWAP 29,524.41; 9 over 21; VWAP crosses in hour one: 5.
Chop: no Setup B; at most one Setup A at an outer level, or take the morning off.
11:25 DONE11:30, morning session over (MNQ.U26). Flat now; the afternoon window opens at 13:00 with the day's high/low as its levels.
Today: 1 heads-up, 0 confirmed.
Your trades today: no trades.
12:55 READ13:00 afternoon read (MNQ.U26): price 29,651.50, above VWAP 29,554.11; first hour was up; morning mode chop.
Afternoon levels: day high 29,659 (+8) and day low 29,424 (-228).
Plan: a shallow poke of either that closes back inside = Setup A fade; a 5-min close through either = Setup C, join the first pullback (these held into the close ~2 of 3 times, best when they agree with the first hour). Lunch range is not a level.
5-min ATR 30: stops 22-45 pts. Caps: 0/2 afternoon alerts. Flat by 15:55.
14:55 READ15:00 power hour (MNQ.U26): price 29,571.25, day up from the 29,523.50 open, above VWAP 29,563.80.
Day high 29,678.25 / low 29,424. Last hour made a new day extreme on ~43% of days, but breakouts of the 2-3pm range failed ~65%: only continuation WITH the day's direction counts, and a shallow poke of the day high/low that closes back inside is still a fade.
Everything closes by 15:55. No overnight.
15:25 SKIPPED15:30 go-with-the-day (long) skipped: stop would be 40 pts, over 1.5x ATR.