Every alert
07:25 UPDATEEarly morning update (MNQ.U26), 07:25 ET bar: 29,252.75. Phase: pre-market.
In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 20 points from yesterday's 29,273 close, a small gap. Gaps that size usually get filled, so 29,273 is a magnet today. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,310) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 14 to 29 points ($29 to $58), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: PDH 29,416.00 (+163) | ONH 29,310.00 (+57) | Prior close 29,273.00 (+20) | ON mid 29,202.75 (-50) | PDL 29,145.50 (-107) | ONL 29,095.50 (-157)
5m ATR 19 | daily ATR 402 | 9/21 EMA 29,245/29,235
News: 08:30 Core PCE Price Index m/m (High); 08:30 Prelim GDP q/q (High)
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,202.75): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap -20 pts is tiny (0.05 daily ATR): the prior close 29,273.00 is a magnet (fills ~78%); expect the overnight range to get swept.
- 8:30 release today: the open runs hotter than usual (ATR ~1.5x). Stops widen, size stays 1 micro, be pickier.
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 14 pts ($29/micro), 1.5x cap = 29 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
08:25 UPDATEPre-open update (MNQ.U26), 08:25 ET bar: 29,258.75. Phase: pre-market.
In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 14 points from yesterday's 29,273 close, a small gap. Gaps that size usually get filled, so 29,273 is a magnet today. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,310) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 18 to 35 points ($35 to $71), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: PDH 29,416.00 (+157) | ONH 29,310.00 (+51) | Prior close 29,273.00 (+14) | ON mid 29,202.75 (-56) | PDL 29,145.50 (-113) | ONL 29,095.50 (-163)
5m ATR 24 | daily ATR 402 | 9/21 EMA 29,227/29,226
News: 08:30 Core PCE Price Index m/m (High); 08:30 Prelim GDP q/q (High)
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,202.75): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap -14 pts is tiny (0.04 daily ATR): the prior close 29,273.00 is a magnet (fills ~78%); expect the overnight range to get swept.
- 8:30 release today: the open runs hotter than usual (ATR ~1.5x). Stops widen, size stays 1 micro, be pickier.
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 18 pts ($35/micro), 1.5x cap = 35 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
09:10 BRIEFMNQ morning map, Wed Aug 26 (MNQ.U26)
PDH 29,416 | PDL 29,145.50 | prior close 29,273
ONH 29,310 | ONL 29,095.50 | ON mid 29,202.75
Pre-open 29,172.50: below ON mid -> ONL usually breaks first (~76%).
Gap -100 pts = 0.25 daily ATR (tiny gap, fills ~78% same day).
Daily ATR 402 | 5-min ATR 30
News today: 08:30 Core PCE Price Index m/m (High); 08:30 Prelim GDP q/q (High)
Rules: nothing before 9:45, max 3 alerts, flat by 11:30.
09:40 UPDATEWindow open, first 15 minutes done (MNQ.U26), 09:40 ET bar: 29,289.75. Phase: open, watch only (9:30-9:45).
In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 100 points from yesterday's 29,273 close, a small gap. Gaps that size usually get filled, so 29,273 is a magnet today. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,310) gets tested before the other end. Price is above today's average price (29,248), so the buyers have the upper hand so far. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 30 to 60 points ($60 to $119), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: PDH 29,416.00 (+126) | ONH 29,310.00 (+20) | Prior close 29,273.00 (-17) | VWAP 29,248.08 (-42) | ON mid 29,202.75 (-87) | PDL 29,145.50 (-144) | ONL 29,095.50 (-194)
5m ATR 40 | daily ATR 402 | 9/21 EMA 29,214/29,202
News: 08:30 Core PCE Price Index m/m (High); 08:30 Prelim GDP q/q (High)
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,202.75): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap -100 pts is tiny (0.25 daily ATR): the prior close 29,273.00 is a magnet (fills ~78%); expect the overnight range to get swept.
- 8:30 release today: the open runs hotter than usual (ATR ~1.5x). Stops widen, size stays 1 micro, be pickier.
- PDH 29,416.00 (+126 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~20 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- ONL 29,095.50 (-194 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~20 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- PDL 29,145.50 (-144 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~20 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
10:00 HEADSUPHEADS-UP: Setup A forming at OR15H 29,313.00. The 10:00 bar poked 20 pts through and closed back inside. If the next bar closes below 29,314.62, it's a go (short). Stop would be ~29,337.75 (33 pts, $66). ATR 41.
10:05 CONFIRMEDSETUP A SHORT CONFIRMED at 10:05 ET, MNQ.U26.
OR15H 29,313.00: 10:00 bar poked to 29,332.75 and closed back inside; 10:05 bar confirmed (close 29,281.00).
Entry ~29,281.00 | Stop 29,337.75 (57 pts, $114) | Target 29,202.75 (1.4R, $156)
ATR 41 | VWAP 29,269.93 | mode unknown
Notes: poke 20 pts (0.48 ATR); fresh level; target = ON mid
Ticket A1010: approve within 15 min to place a 1-micro bracket (orders ARMED).
10:05 HEADSUPHEADS-UP: Setup B (long) pullback is in the zone. Direction from first-hour candle body 0.98; drive extreme 29,333.25, pullback to 29,273.75 (37% retrace), 21 EMA 29,238.97, VWAP 29,269.93. Watch for a trend bar closing above the 9 EMA (29,271.23) and the prior bar's high. Stop would be ~29,268.75 (31 pts).
10:10 TRADEFilled: now short 1 from 29,280.50.
10:13 TRADETrade closed: short 1 MNQ.U26 29,280.50 -> 29,247.50 = +33.00 pts ($+66.00), held 4 min, Setup A OR15H (10:05). Today: 1 trade, 1 win, +33.00 pts ($+66.00).
10:20 INFOSetup A short from 10:05: hit TARGET at 10:25 (+1.4R).
10:25 READ10:30 read (MNQ.U26): first-hour body 0.03 (up) -> mode chop.
IB 29,156.25-29,333.25 (177 pts = 0.44 daily ATR; narrow, extension likely).
Price 29,178.50 below VWAP 29,257.58; 9 over 21; VWAP crosses in hour one: 3.
Chop: no Setup B; at most one Setup A at an outer level, or take the morning off.
11:25 DONE11:30, morning session over (MNQ.U26). Flat now; the afternoon window opens at 13:00 with the day's high/low as its levels.
Today: 2 heads-up, 1 confirmed.
- Setup A short 10:05: win (+1.4R)
Your trades today: 1 trade, 1 win, +33.00 pts ($+66.00).
12:55 READ13:00 afternoon read (MNQ.U26): price 29,216.75, below VWAP 29,243.87; first hour was up; morning mode chop.
Afternoon levels: day high 29,333.25 (+116) and day low 29,156.25 (-60).
Plan: a shallow poke of either that closes back inside = Setup A fade; a 5-min close through either = Setup C, join the first pullback (these held into the close ~2 of 3 times, best when they agree with the first hour). Lunch range is not a level.
5-min ATR 29: stops 22-43 pts. Caps: 0/2 afternoon alerts. Flat by 15:55.
14:55 READ15:00 power hour (MNQ.U26): price 29,321.25, day up from the 29,173.25 open, above VWAP 29,249.82.
Day high 29,333.25 / low 29,156.25. Last hour made a new day extreme on ~43% of days, but breakouts of the 2-3pm range failed ~65%: only continuation WITH the day's direction counts, and a shallow poke of the day high/low that closes back inside is still a fade.
Everything closes by 15:55. No overnight.
15:01 TRADEFilled: now long 1 from 29,337.00.
15:03 TRADETrade closed: long 1 MNQ.U26 29,337.00 -> 29,348.25 = +11.25 pts ($+22.50), held 2 min, unplanned. Today: 2 trades, 2 wins, +44.25 pts ($+88.50).
15:25 PMSETUPAFTERNOON SETUP (paper-tracked, no ticket) SETUP D LONG at 15:30 ET, MNQ.U26: go with the day into the close.
Day is up 65 pts from yesterday's close (0.22%), first hour agrees.
Entry ~29,338.25 | Stop 29,312.75 (26 pts, $51) | Target 29,368.75 (1.2R, $61) | hold to 15:55, then flat.
Why: the last half hour tends to go the way the day went (two futures studies, ~55% hit, 61% when the first hour agrees; our own data +0.1R per trade). Small edge, so size stays 1 micro.
15:30 TRADEFilled: now long 1 from 29,335.00.
15:33 TRADETrade closed: long 1 MNQ.U26 29,335.00 -> 29,342.00 = +7.00 pts ($+14.00), held 3 min, Setup D 15:30 go-with-the-day (15:25). Today: 3 trades, 3 wins, +51.25 pts ($+102.50).
15:40 INFOSetup D long from 15:25: hit STOP at 15:45 (-1.0R).
15:45 TRADEFilled: now long 1 from 29,307.50.
15:47 TRADETrade closed: long 1 MNQ.U26 29,307.50 -> 29,318.50 = +11.00 pts ($+22.00), held 2 min, Setup D 15:30 go-with-the-day (15:25). Today: 4 trades, 4 wins, +62.25 pts ($+124.50).