Every alert
07:25 UPDATEEarly morning update (MNQ.U26), 07:25 ET bar: 29,182.50. Phase: pre-market.
In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 213 points from yesterday's 29,396 close, a middling gap. We are below the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight low (29,117) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 16 to 32 points ($32 to $64), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: PDH 29,488.50 (+306) | ONH 29,480.50 (+298) | Prior close 29,395.75 (+213) | ON mid 29,298.62 (+116) | PDL 29,220.25 (+38) | ONL 29,116.75 (-66)
5m ATR 21 | daily ATR 454 | 9/21 EMA 29,184/29,196
Watch:
- Price is below the ON mid (29,298.62): ONL usually breaks first (~76%); ONH is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap -213 pts (0.47 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 16 pts ($32/micro), 1.5x cap = 32 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
08:25 UPDATEPre-open update (MNQ.U26), 08:25 ET bar: 29,229.50. Phase: pre-market.
In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 166 points from yesterday's 29,396 close, a middling gap. We are below the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight low (29,117) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 18 to 35 points ($35 to $70), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: PDH 29,488.50 (+259) | ONH 29,480.50 (+251) | Prior close 29,395.75 (+166) | ON mid 29,298.62 (+69) | PDL 29,220.25 (-9) | ONL 29,116.75 (-113)
5m ATR 23 | daily ATR 454 | 9/21 EMA 29,224/29,220
Watch:
- Price is below the ON mid (29,298.62): ONL usually breaks first (~76%); ONH is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap -166 pts (0.37 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 18 pts ($35/micro), 1.5x cap = 35 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
09:10 BRIEFMNQ morning map, Mon Aug 24 (MNQ.U26)
PDH 29,488.50 | PDL 29,220.25 | prior close 29,395.75
ONH 29,480.50 | ONL 29,116.75 | ON mid 29,298.62
Pre-open 29,208.00: below ON mid -> ONL usually breaks first (~76%).
Gap -188 pts = 0.41 daily ATR (mid-size gap, ~25-40% fill).
Daily ATR 454 | 5-min ATR 25
News: nothing high-impact on the calendar.
Rules: nothing before 9:45, max 3 alerts, flat by 11:30.
09:40 UPDATEWindow open, first 15 minutes done (MNQ.U26), 09:40 ET bar: 28,978.50. Phase: open, watch only (9:30-9:45).
In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 159 points from yesterday's 29,396 close, a middling gap. We are below the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight low (29,117) gets tested before the other end. Price is below today's average price (29,090), so the sellers have the upper hand so far. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 33 to 66 points ($66 to $132), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: PDH 29,488.50 (+510) | ONH 29,480.50 (+502) | Prior close 29,395.75 (+417) | ON mid 29,298.62 (+320) | PDL 29,220.25 (+242) | ONL 29,116.75 (+138) | VWAP 29,089.92 (+111)
5m ATR 44 | daily ATR 454 | 9/21 EMA 29,132/29,174
Watch:
- Price is below the ON mid (29,298.62): ONL usually breaks first (~76%); ONH is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap -159 pts (0.35 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- ONH 29,480.50 (+502 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~22 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- PDH 29,488.50 (+510 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~22 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- Broken today: PDL 29,220.25, ONL 29,116.75. A retest that holds is Setup B territory; do not fade these.
- Price is 195 pts from the 21 EMA (>2 ATR): extended, do not chase; wait for the pullback.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
10:25 READ10:30 read (MNQ.U26): first-hour body 0.76 (down) -> mode trend-down.
IB 28,947.75-29,243.75 (296 pts = 0.65 daily ATR; normal).
Price 29,012.50 below VWAP 29,029.57; 21 over 9; VWAP crosses in hour one: 0.
Setup B mode short: wait for the pullback to VWAP / 21 EMA.
11:25 DONE11:30, morning session over (MNQ.U26). Flat now; the afternoon window opens at 13:00 with the day's high/low as its levels.
Today: 0 heads-up, 0 confirmed.
Your trades today: no trades.
12:55 READ13:00 afternoon read (MNQ.U26): price 29,170.50, above VWAP 29,076.68; first hour was down; morning mode trend-down.
Afternoon levels: day high 29,243.75 (+73) and day low 28,947.75 (-223).
Plan: a shallow poke of either that closes back inside = Setup A fade; a 5-min close through either = Setup C, join the first pullback (these held into the close ~2 of 3 times, best when they agree with the first hour). Lunch range is not a level.
5-min ATR 28: stops 21-42 pts. Caps: 0/2 afternoon alerts. Flat by 15:55.
14:55 READ15:00 power hour (MNQ.U26): price 29,154.50, day down from the 29,236.50 open, above VWAP 29,096.47.
Day high 29,243.75 / low 28,947.75. Last hour made a new day extreme on ~43% of days, but breakouts of the 2-3pm range failed ~65%: only continuation WITH the day's direction counts, and a shallow poke of the day high/low that closes back inside is still a fade.
Everything closes by 15:55. No overnight.
15:25 PMSETUPAFTERNOON SETUP (paper-tracked, no ticket) SETUP D SHORT at 15:30 ET, MNQ.U26: go with the day into the close.
Day is down 237 pts from yesterday's close (0.81%), first hour agrees.
Entry ~29,159.00 | Stop 29,175.42 (16 pts, $33) | Target 28,947.75 (12.9R, $422) | hold to 15:55, then flat.
Why: the last half hour tends to go the way the day went (two futures studies, ~55% hit, 61% when the first hour agrees; our own data +0.1R per trade). Small edge, so size stays 1 micro.
15:31 TRADEFilled: now short 1 from 29,166.00.
15:32 TRADETrade closed: short 1 MNQ.U26 29,166.00 -> 29,156.25 = +9.75 pts ($+19.50), held 1 min, Setup D 15:30 go-with-the-day (15:25). Today: 1 trade, 1 win, +9.75 pts ($+19.50).
15:50 FLATTEN15:55: flat by the close. Anything still open from today's plans should be closed now; nothing is held overnight.