Every alert
07:25 UPDATEEarly morning update (MNQ.U26), 07:25 ET bar: 29,518.50. Phase: pre-market.
In plain English: Overnight the market moved up about 214 points from yesterday's 29,304 close, a middling gap. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,526) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 15 to 30 points ($30 to $60), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: ONH 29,525.50 (+7) | PDH 29,470.25 (-48) | ON mid 29,399.50 (-119) | Prior close 29,304.25 (-214) | ONL 29,273.50 (-245) | PDL 29,202.50 (-316)
5m ATR 20 | daily ATR 490 | 9/21 EMA 29,491/29,480
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,399.50): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap +214 pts (0.44 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 15 pts ($30/micro), 1.5x cap = 30 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
08:25 UPDATEPre-open update (MNQ.U26), 08:25 ET bar: 29,516.75. Phase: pre-market.
In plain English: Overnight the market moved up about 212 points from yesterday's 29,304 close, a middling gap. We are above the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight high (29,540) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 16 to 31 points ($31 to $62), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: ONH 29,539.75 (+23) | PDH 29,470.25 (-46) | ON mid 29,406.62 (-110) | Prior close 29,304.25 (-212) | ONL 29,273.50 (-243) | PDL 29,202.50 (-314)
5m ATR 21 | daily ATR 490 | 9/21 EMA 29,501/29,496
Watch:
- Price is above the ON mid (29,406.62): ONH usually breaks first (~76%); ONL is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap +212 pts (0.43 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 16 pts ($31/micro), 1.5x cap = 31 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
09:10 BRIEFMNQ morning map, Fri Aug 21 (MNQ.U26)
PDH 29,470.25 | PDL 29,202.50 | prior close 29,304.25
ONH 29,539.75 | ONL 29,273.50 | ON mid 29,406.62
Pre-open 29,469.25: above ON mid -> ONH usually breaks first (~76%).
Gap +165 pts = 0.34 daily ATR (mid-size gap, ~25-40% fill).
Daily ATR 490 | 5-min ATR 19
News: nothing high-impact on the calendar.
Rules: nothing before 9:45, max 3 alerts, flat by 11:30.
09:40 UPDATEWindow open, first 15 minutes done (MNQ.U26), 09:40 ET bar: 29,321.50. Phase: open, watch only (9:30-9:45).
In plain English: Overnight the market moved up about 168 points from yesterday's 29,304 close, a middling gap. We are below the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight low (29,274) gets tested before the other end. Price is below today's average price (29,364), so the sellers have the upper hand so far. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 24 to 48 points ($48 to $97), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: ONH 29,539.75 (+218) | PDH 29,470.25 (+149) | ON mid 29,406.62 (+85) | VWAP 29,364.48 (+43) | Prior close 29,304.25 (-17) | ONL 29,273.50 (-48) | PDL 29,202.50 (-119)
5m ATR 32 | daily ATR 490 | 9/21 EMA 29,412/29,454
Watch:
- Price is below the ON mid (29,406.62): ONL usually breaks first (~76%); ONH is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap +168 pts (0.34 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- ONH 29,539.75 (+218 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~16 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- ONL 29,273.50 (-48 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~16 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- PDL 29,202.50 (-119 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~16 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- Price is 132 pts from the 21 EMA (>2 ATR): extended, do not chase; wait for the pullback.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
09:50 HEADSUPHEADS-UP: Setup A forming at ONL 29,273.50. The 09:50 bar poked 16 pts through and closed back inside. If the next bar closes above 29,301.38, it's a go (long). Stop would be ~29,252.25 (39 pts, $78). ATR 38.
09:55 CONFIRMEDSETUP A LONG CONFIRMED at 09:55 ET, MNQ.U26.
ONL 29,273.50: 09:50 bar poked to 29,257.25 and closed back inside; 09:55 bar confirmed (close 29,304.75).
Entry ~29,304.75 | Stop 29,252.25 (52 pts, $105) | Target 29,383.50 (1.5R, $158)
ATR 39 | VWAP 29,339.25 | mode unknown
Notes: poke 16 pts (0.42 ATR); fresh level; target = 1.5R
Ticket A0959: approve within 15 min to place a 1-micro bracket (orders ARMED).
10:00 TRADEFilled: now long 1 from 29,296.50.
10:14 TRADETrade closed: long 1 MNQ.U26 29,296.50 -> 29,252.50 = -44.00 pts ($-88.00), held 14 min, Setup A ONL (09:55). Today: 1 trade, 0 wins, -44.00 pts ($-88.00).
10:10 INFOSetup A long from 09:55: hit STOP at 10:15 (-1.0R).
10:25 READ10:30 read (MNQ.U26): first-hour body 0.77 (down) -> mode trend-down.
IB 29,220.25-29,472.75 (252 pts = 0.52 daily ATR; normal).
Price 29,279.00 below VWAP 29,311.55; 21 over 9; VWAP crosses in hour one: 0.
Setup B mode short: wait for the pullback to VWAP / 21 EMA.
10:25 HEADSUPHEADS-UP: Setup B (short) pullback is in the zone. Direction from first-hour candle body 0.78; drive extreme 29,220.25, pullback to 29,312.75 (37% retrace), 21 EMA 29,353.00, VWAP 29,311.55. Watch for a trend bar closing below the 9 EMA (29,291.82) and the prior bar's low. Stop would be ~29,317.75 (39 pts).
10:33 TRADEFilled: now long 1 from 29,301.75.
10:36 TRADETrade closed: long 1 MNQ.U26 29,301.75 -> 29,272.75 = -29.00 pts ($-58.00), held 3 min, unplanned. Today: 2 trades, 0 wins, -73.00 pts ($-146.00).
10:40 TRADEFilled: now long 1 from 29,288.75.
10:47 TRADETrade closed: long 1 MNQ.U26 29,288.75 -> 29,306.50 = +17.75 pts ($+35.50), held 7 min, unplanned. Today: 3 trades, 1 win, -55.25 pts ($-110.50).
11:01 TRADEFilled: now long 1 from 29,332.50.
11:09 TRADETrade closed: long 1 MNQ.U26 29,332.50 -> 29,354.00 = +21.50 pts ($+43.00), held 7 min, unplanned. Today: 4 trades, 2 wins, -33.75 pts ($-67.50).
11:25 DONE11:30, morning session over (MNQ.U26). Flat now; the afternoon window opens at 13:00 with the day's high/low as its levels.
Today: 2 heads-up, 1 confirmed.
- Setup A long 09:55: loss (-1.0R)
Your trades today: 4 trades, 2 wins, -33.75 pts ($-67.50).
11:41 TRADEFilled: now long 1 from 29,455.75.
11:41 TRADETrade closed: long 1 MNQ.U26 29,455.75 -> 29,460.25 = +4.50 pts ($+9.00), held 0 min, unplanned. Today: 5 trades, 3 wins, -29.25 pts ($-58.50).
12:55 READ13:00 afternoon read (MNQ.U26): price 29,412.50, above VWAP 29,343.91; first hour was down; morning mode trend-down.
Afternoon levels: day high 29,488.50 (+76) and day low 29,220.25 (-192).
Plan: a shallow poke of either that closes back inside = Setup A fade; a 5-min close through either = Setup C, join the first pullback (these held into the close ~2 of 3 times, best when they agree with the first hour). Lunch range is not a level.
5-min ATR 32: stops 24-48 pts. Caps: 0/2 afternoon alerts. Flat by 15:55.
14:55 READ15:00 power hour (MNQ.U26): price 29,400.50, day down from the 29,472.25 open, above VWAP 29,350.58.
Day high 29,488.50 / low 29,220.25. Last hour made a new day extreme on ~43% of days, but breakouts of the 2-3pm range failed ~65%: only continuation WITH the day's direction counts, and a shallow poke of the day high/low that closes back inside is still a fade.
Everything closes by 15:55. No overnight.
15:25 INFO15:30 go-with-the-day: day is up 90 pts from yesterday's close but the first hour disagreed, so no Setup D today (the edge mostly lives where they agree).