Every alert
07:25 UPDATEEarly morning update (MNQ.U26), 07:25 ET bar: 29,425.25. Phase: pre-market.
In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 96 points from yesterday's 29,521 close, a small gap. Gaps that size usually get filled, so 29,521 is a magnet today. We are below the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight low (29,422) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 22 to 44 points ($44 to $89), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: PDH 29,742.00 (+317) | ONH 29,688.50 (+263) | ON mid 29,555.38 (+130) | Prior close 29,521.25 (+96) | ONL 29,422.25 (-3) | PDL 29,375.75 (-50)
5m ATR 30 | daily ATR 490 | 9/21 EMA 29,483/29,508
Watch:
- Price is below the ON mid (29,555.38): ONL usually breaks first (~76%); ONH is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap -96 pts is tiny (0.20 daily ATR): the prior close 29,521.25 is a magnet (fills ~78%); expect the overnight range to get swept.
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Price is 83 pts from the 21 EMA (>2 ATR): extended, do not chase; wait for the pullback.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 22 pts ($44/micro), 1.5x cap = 44 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
08:25 UPDATEPre-open update (MNQ.U26), 08:25 ET bar: 29,277.25. Phase: pre-market.
In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 244 points from yesterday's 29,521 close, a middling gap. We are below the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight low (29,264) gets tested before the other end. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 25 to 50 points ($50 to $101), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: PDH 29,742.00 (+465) | ONH 29,688.50 (+411) | Prior close 29,521.25 (+244) | ON mid 29,476.00 (+199) | PDL 29,375.75 (+98) | ONL 29,263.50 (-14)
5m ATR 34 | daily ATR 490 | 9/21 EMA 29,321/29,386
Watch:
- Price is below the ON mid (29,476.00): ONL usually breaks first (~76%); ONH is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap -244 pts (0.50 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- 9:30-9:45: watch only. A third of overnight-level breaks happen in the first 5 minutes; most whipsaws live here.
- Price is 108 pts from the 21 EMA (>2 ATR): extended, do not chase; wait for the pullback.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 25 pts ($50/micro), 1.5x cap = 50 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
09:10 BRIEFMNQ morning map, Thu Aug 20 (MNQ.U26)
PDH 29,742 | PDL 29,375.75 | prior close 29,521.25
ONH 29,688.50 | ONL 29,240.25 | ON mid 29,464.38
Pre-open 29,338.25: below ON mid -> ONL usually breaks first (~76%).
Gap -183 pts = 0.37 daily ATR (mid-size gap, ~25-40% fill).
Daily ATR 490 | 5-min ATR 31
News: nothing high-impact on the calendar.
Rules: nothing before 9:45, max 3 alerts, flat by 11:30.
09:40 UPDATEWindow open, first 15 minutes done (MNQ.U26), 09:40 ET bar: 29,442.75. Phase: open, watch only (9:30-9:45).
In plain English: Overnight the market moved down about 168 points from yesterday's 29,521 close, a middling gap. We are below the middle of the overnight range, which usually means the overnight low (29,240) gets tested before the other end. Price is above today's average price (29,414), so the buyers have the upper hand so far. Nothing to do yet. The job before 9:45 is to let the open sort itself out and see which levels get hit. Either way it is one trade, one micro, with a stop of roughly 31 to 61 points ($61 to $123), a target about one and a half times that, sent as a bracket so it runs without you.
Levels: PDH 29,742.00 (+299) | ONH 29,688.50 (+246) | Prior close 29,521.25 (+78) | ON mid 29,464.38 (+22) | VWAP 29,413.67 (-29) | PDL 29,375.75 (-67) | ONL 29,240.25 (-202)
5m ATR 41 | daily ATR 490 | 9/21 EMA 29,384/29,370
Watch:
- Price is below the ON mid (29,464.38): ONL usually breaks first (~76%); ONH is reached first only ~23%.
- Gap -168 pts (0.34 daily ATR): mixed odds of a fill (~25-40%).
- ONH 29,688.50 (+246 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~20 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- PDH 29,742.00 (+299 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~20 pts that closes back inside = Setup A short; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- ONL 29,240.25 (-202 pts) is fresh: a poke of less than ~20 pts that closes back inside = Setup A long; a body close through it on heavy volume = a break, do not fade.
- Stop sizing right now: 0.75x ATR = 31 pts ($61/micro), 1.5x cap = 61 pts.
Full page: https://peltonsites.com/mnq/
10:25 READ10:30 read (MNQ.U26): first-hour body 0.01 (down) -> mode chop.
IB 29,304.50-29,470.25 (166 pts = 0.34 daily ATR; narrow, extension likely).
Price 29,350.50 below VWAP 29,379.15; 21 over 9; VWAP crosses in hour one: 5.
Chop: no Setup B; at most one Setup A at an outer level, or take the morning off.
11:25 DONE11:30, morning session over (MNQ.U26). Flat now; the afternoon window opens at 13:00 with the day's high/low as its levels.
Today: 0 heads-up, 0 confirmed.
Your trades today: no trades.
12:55 READ13:00 afternoon read (MNQ.U26): price 29,379.75, above VWAP 29,365.88; first hour was down; morning mode chop.
Afternoon levels: day high 29,470.25 (+90) and day low 29,269.25 (-110).
Plan: a shallow poke of either that closes back inside = Setup A fade; a 5-min close through either = Setup C, join the first pullback (these held into the close ~2 of 3 times, best when they agree with the first hour). Lunch range is not a level.
5-min ATR 37: stops 28-55 pts. Caps: 0/2 afternoon alerts. Flat by 15:55.
13:50 HEADSUPHEADS-UP: Setup B (short) pullback is in the zone. Direction from close below IB low; drive extreme 29,282.00, pullback to 29,326.25 (44% retrace), 21 EMA 29,321.68, VWAP 29,361.33. Watch for a trend bar closing below the 9 EMA (29,307.20) and the prior bar's low. Stop would be ~29,331.25 (30 pts).
14:55 READ15:00 power hour (MNQ.U26): price 29,243.50, day down from the 29,352.75 open, below VWAP 29,348.38.
Day high 29,470.25 / low 29,202.50. Last hour made a new day extreme on ~43% of days, but breakouts of the 2-3pm range failed ~65%: only continuation WITH the day's direction counts, and a shallow poke of the day high/low that closes back inside is still a fade.
Everything closes by 15:55. No overnight.
15:15 TRADEFilled: now short 1 from 29,286.25.
15:17 TRADETrade closed: short 1 MNQ.U26 29,286.25 -> 29,276.75 = +9.50 pts ($+19.00), held 2 min, unplanned. Today: 1 trade, 1 win, +9.50 pts ($+19.00).
15:25 PMSETUPAFTERNOON SETUP (paper-tracked, no ticket) SETUP D SHORT at 15:30 ET, MNQ.U26: go with the day into the close.
Day is down 216 pts from yesterday's close (0.74%), first hour agrees.
Entry ~29,304.75 | Stop 29,324.09 (19 pts, $39) | Target 29,202.50 (5.3R, $204) | hold to 15:55, then flat.
Why: the last half hour tends to go the way the day went (two futures studies, ~55% hit, 61% when the first hour agrees; our own data +0.1R per trade). Small edge, so size stays 1 micro.
15:35 INFOSetup D short from 15:25: hit STOP at 15:40 (-1.0R).