Every alert
09:15 BRIEFMNQ morning map, Fri Aug 14 (MNQ.U26)
PDH 30,273.25 | PDL 29,862.75 | prior close 30,194.75
ONH 30,287.25 | ONL 30,124.25 | ON mid 30,205.75
Pre-open 30,246.75: above ON mid -> ONH usually breaks first (~76%).
Gap +52 pts = 0.11 daily ATR (tiny gap, fills ~78% same day).
Daily ATR 453 | 5-min ATR 17
News: nothing high-impact on the calendar.
Rules: nothing before 9:45, max 3 alerts, flat by 11:30.
09:45 HEADSUPHEADS-UP: Setup A forming at PDH 30,273.25. The 09:45 bar poked 8 pts through and closed back inside. If the next bar closes below 30,252.88, it's a go (short). Stop would be ~30,285.75 (46 pts, $93). ATR 28.
09:50 SKIPPEDSetup A at PDH 30,273.25 confirmed at 09:50 but SKIPPED: skip: stop 47 pts is over 1.5x ATR (45)
10:05 HEADSUPHEADS-UP: Setup A forming at OR15H 30,269.50. The 10:05 bar poked 3 pts through and closed back inside. If the next bar closes below 30,249.38, it's a go (short). Stop would be ~30,277.25 (43 pts, $86). ATR 34.
10:10 CONFIRMEDSETUP A SHORT CONFIRMED at 10:10 ET, MNQ.U26.
OR15H 30,269.50: 10:05 bar poked to 30,272.25 and closed back inside; 10:10 bar confirmed (close 30,221.25).
Entry ~30,226.50 | Stop 30,277.25 (51 pts, $102) | Target 30,150.38 (1.5R, $152)
ATR 33 | VWAP 30,232.80 | mode unknown
Notes: poke 3 pts (0.08 ATR); fresh level; LIMIT entry at the poke bar's low (retest); may not fill; do not chase; target = 1.5R
10:15 INFOSetup A short limit at 30,226.50 would have FILLED at 10:15.
10:15 HEADSUPHEADS-UP: Setup A forming at OR15L 30,170.00. The 10:15 bar poked 4 pts through and closed back inside. If the next bar closes above 30,197.75, it's a go (long). Stop would be ~30,161.00 (27 pts, $53). ATR 35.
10:20 INFOSetup A short from 10:10: hit TARGET at 10:25 (+1.5R).
10:25 READ10:30 read (MNQ.U26): first-hour body 0.56 (down) -> mode chop.
IB 30,134.25-30,280.75 (146 pts = 0.32 daily ATR; narrow, extension likely).
Price 30,159.50 below VWAP 30,219.23; 21 over 9; VWAP crosses in hour one: 4.
Chop: no Setup B; at most one Setup A at an outer level, or take the morning off.
11:25 DONE11:30, morning session over (MNQ.U26). Flat now; the afternoon window opens at 13:00 with the day's high/low as its levels.
Today: 3 heads-up, 1 confirmed.
- Setup A short 10:10: win (+1.5R)
12:55 READ13:00 afternoon read (MNQ.U26): price 30,059.00, below VWAP 30,154.10; first hour was down; morning mode chop.
Afternoon levels: day high 30,280.75 (+222) and day low 30,025 (-34).
Plan: a shallow poke of either that closes back inside = Setup A fade; a 5-min close through either = Setup C, join the first pullback (these held into the close ~2 of 3 times, best when they agree with the first hour). Lunch range is not a level.
5-min ATR 26: stops 19-39 pts. Caps: 0/2 afternoon alerts. Flat by 15:55.
14:35 HEADSUPHEADS-UP: Setup B (short) pullback is in the zone. Direction from close below IB low; drive extreme 30,062.50, pullback to 30,073.75 (36% retrace), 21 EMA 30,074.82, VWAP 30,143.02. Watch for a trend bar closing below the 9 EMA (30,074.78) and the prior bar's low. Stop would be ~30,078.75 (14 pts).
14:55 READ15:00 power hour (MNQ.U26): price 30,088.25, day down from the 30,241.25 open, below VWAP 30,141.75.
Day high 30,280.75 / low 30,025. Last hour made a new day extreme on ~43% of days, but breakouts of the 2-3pm range failed ~65%: only continuation WITH the day's direction counts, and a shallow poke of the day high/low that closes back inside is still a fade.
Everything closes by 15:55. No overnight.
15:25 PMSETUPAFTERNOON SETUP (paper-tracked, no ticket) SETUP D SHORT at 15:30 ET, MNQ.U26: go with the day into the close.
Day is down 98 pts from yesterday's close (0.33%), first hour agrees.
Entry ~30,096.25 | Stop 30,108.75 (12 pts, $25) | Target 30,025.00 (5.7R, $142) | hold to 15:55, then flat.
Why: the last half hour tends to go the way the day went (two futures studies, ~55% hit, 61% when the first hour agrees; our own data +0.1R per trade). Small edge, so size stays 1 micro.
15:35 INFOSetup D short from 15:25: hit STOP at 15:40 (-1.0R).
15:55 DAYDONE16:00, day over (MNQ.U26).
Today: 4 heads-up, 2 confirmed (1 morning, 1 afternoon).
- Setup A short 10:10: win (+1.5R)
- Setup D short 15:25: loss (-1.0R)